Who's My Derby Pick?

Today is Kentucky Derby day.  For some, that means it's time to dig out their big fancy hats.  For others, it's time to mix up a Mint Julep and cook up a Hot Brown.  But for me, it's time to put my handicapping to the true test and see if I can pick a winner among nineteen unpredictable three-year old horses.  I've studied the past performances, I've done my analysis, and I'm ready to make my picks.  As a kid, I used to grab the morning paper, check the names of the horses running that day and circle my top three picks.  Then that night, I'd watch the race recap show and cheer on my picks, comparing my results against the professionals picks.  One summer, I even managed to have a better winning percentage than all five pros in the NY Daily News.  So I'm excited to share my picks with you today, knowing full well that by about 6:30pm EST tonight, I will have either earned your full respect, or I'll cease writing about my race track adventures forever.

First a few facts about this race.  The horses will run 1 1/4 miles, which is further than any of them have ever run before.  The race is run on the dirt, but with rain predicted, a sloppy track is possible which could throw all research out the window.  So here goes.

The Favorites

• Revolutionary (#3) is taking money, down from 10-1 morning line to current 5-1 odds.  He has a chance to put in a big performance.
• Goldencents (#8) ran a very big race in his last effort and his name is now well known as the horse partially owned by Rick Pitino.  Those factors will likely make him one of the favorites and doesn't provide enough value for me.  So I'm throwing him out.
• I grow up in the shadows of the Verrazano Bridge, which connects Brooklyn to Staten Island.  So my heart is with Verrazano (#14) today, but I'm concerned he's run too many big races the past four months.  And he didnt' race as a two year old, so he just might not be ready for this big stage just yet.  I think he's still good a solid shot at top three, but he won't be my first choice to win it all.
• Orb(#16) may be the favorite when the gates open, and he's run two solid races in a row, but at short money, even if he continues to progress, I think someone else will jump up and beat him.

The Middle Tier

• It looks like Normandy Invasion (#5) will like running the extra distance and has a big race last year to indicate he could run big today.
• Overanalyze (#9) has a shot at a decent price to make the top three and beat Normandy Invasion last November.
• Itsmyluckyday (#12) ran two very big races in January before getting beat by race favorite Orb in March.  It's possible after a step backwards in that last race he could improve again, but I think this distance will be too much so he's out.

The Long Shots

• Will Take Charge (#17) is interesting to me if the track doesn't get too sloppy.  He's well rested and should like the added distance.  His sire is Unbridled's Song, a Derby champ and he's trained by legend D. Wayne Lukas.
• Java's War (#19) ran second to Verrazano in March and a repeat performance could have him close at the finish, especially given he likes to come from way behind.
• Vyjack (#20) will leave from the far outside post but with Garrett Gomez along for the ride, getting over and saving ground shouldn't be problem and he also figures to be closing late at a very big price.

Now that I've done the analysis, "Who's My Derby Pick?"  I've decided to put my faith in the #5 Normandy Invasion.  He might not be the best horse in the race, but for his price, I like his chances the best.  So here's how I'd spend my $100:

• $10 Win on 5 (Normandy Invasion) - I think he's got the best shot for the price (total bet costs $10)
• $10 Exacta Box 3 (Revolutionary) and 5 (Normandy Invasion) (total bet costs $20)
• $5 Exacta Box 5 (Normandy Invasion) and 9 (Overanalyze) (total bet costs $10)
• $3 Exacta Box 5 (Normandy Invasion) and 19 (Java's War) (total bet costs $6)
• $3 Exacta Box 5 (Normandy Invasion) and 20 (Vyjack) (total bet costs $6)

A whole bunch of $1 Triple Boxes (each bet costing $6):

• 3 (Revolutionary), 5 (Normandy Invasion) and 9 (Overanalyze)
• 3 (Revolutionary), 5 (Normandy Invasion) and  17 (Will Take Charge)
• 3 (Revolutionary), 5 (Normandy Invasion) and  19 (Java's War)
• 3 (Revolutionary), 5 (Normandy Invasion) and 20 (Vyjack)
• 5 (Normandy Invasion), 14 (Verrazano) and 20 (Vyjack)
• 5 (Normandy Invasion), 16 (Orb) and 20 (Vyjack)
• 3 (Revolutionary),  9 (Overanalyze) and 14 (Verrazano)
• 3 (Revolutionary), 14 (Verrazano) and 20 (Vyjack)

Here's a quick dictionary of bets:

• Win - The horse has to win the race
• Exacta Box - The two horses have to finish first and second in either order
• Triple Box - The three horses have to finish first, second and third in any order

So, who you got?  You've got about 3 1/2 hours to make your pick!