Since I didn't make a complete fool of myself with my Derby
picks, I'm at it again for the Preakness Stakes, the second of three legs in
the Triple Crown. Since there are only
nine horses in this race, here's my quick analysis of each horse, followed by
my wagers. I'll stick with another $100 in
bets in an attempt to make up the $100 I lost in the Derby and hopefully a lot
more.- Orb (#1) ran the biggest race of his young career winning the Derby and he doesn't figure to repeat that performance in the Preakness. Derby winners are usually the favorite in the Preakness, and they have been known to run better than they should in this race, so while I'll look for a better value to win it all, I can't throw him out completely.
- Goldencents (#2) went into the Derby coming off his biggest race and figured to go backwards a bit in the Derby, but not that bad. He was beaten by almost 50 lengths which is a whole lot in a horse race. There are a lot of possible reasons for the horrible performance including distance, too many speed horses in the race, and most of all, a very sloppy wet track. He should get back to form in the Preakness, as long as the predicted rain doesn't mess with this race, too. And since I figure the betters might shy away from him a bit, he'll definitely be in my wagers.
- Titletown Five (#3) looks too slow to keep up with this field, so he's out.
- Departing (#4) is a new entrant to the triple crown, with four weeks of rest to support his efforts. He seems to have done well with the increasing distance and is a serious contender. He should have enough speed to sit right behind the frontrunners and strike when they turn for home. He's a major player in my betting.
- Mylute (#5) ran a big race closing fast in the shadows of Orb to finish fifth in the Derby. He figures to struggle off his biggest effort so far and as one of the favorites, I don't think he's worth the odds. So he's out of my betting.
- Oxbow (#6) ran alright in the Derby until fading late like many other horses running a mile and a quarter for the first time. The Preakness is a sixteen of a mile shorter which should help, but I just don't think he'll have enough to win it all. But at a potential long shot price, I'll take a shot at him finishing in the top 3.
- Willtakecharge (#7) was coming off his best race heading into the Derby and might have been turned off by the wet track and added distance. He's probably too slow to win it all, but at a decent price, I'll throw him into at least one of my triple bets.
- Sometimes when handicapping a race, there comes a horse you just don't know what to do with. Governor Charlie (#8) is that horse. He's lightly raced with only three starts in his lifetime and he hasn't run in almost two months. He's never run against this quality of competition either. All signs are that he probably needs a few races of this caliber to be competitive, but if he can continue to improve, it's not that difficult to make a case for him. I'll throw him in a few bets because his price might be too good to pass up, but I'm not counting on much this time.
- Itsmyluckyday (#9) took a huge step back in the Derby and I'm not certain he can recover quickly enough with just two weeks since that race, so he's off my radar.
With the analysis behind me, I'm putting all my eggs in the
Departing basket. And since I like to
try to hit it big, I'll take a shot with a bunch of triples without Orb for a
big price. Here are my wagers:
- $20 Win on 4 (Departing) (total bet costs $20)
- $5 Exacta Box 4 (Departing) and 1 (Orb) (total bet costs $10)
- $5 Exacta Box 4 (Departing) and 2 (Goldencents) (total bet costs $10)
- $3 Exacta Box 4 (Departing) and 6 (Oxbow) (total bet costs $6)
- $3 Exacta Box 4 (Departing) and 7 (Willtakecharge) (total bet costs $6)
- $3 Exacta Box 4 (Departing) and 8 (Governor Charlie) (total bet costs $6)
- $2 Triple Box 4 (Departing), 1 (Orb) and 2 (Goldencents) (total bet costs $12)
- $1 Triple Box 4 (Departing), 2 (Goldencents) and 7 (Willtakecharge) (total bet costs $6)
- $2 Triple Part-Wheel 4 (Departing) with 2 (Goldencents), 6 (Oxbow), 7 (Willtakecharge)and 8 (Governor Charlie) (total bet costs $24)
Here's a quick reminder
on what these bets mean:
- Win - The horse has to win the race
- Exacta Box - The two horses have to finish first and second in either order
- Triple Box - The three horses have to finish first, second and third in any order
- Triple Part-Wheel - The first horse must win the race and two of the other horses in the bet must finish second and third
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